俄罗斯联邦常住人口增长预测¶
在本示例中,我们将考虑使用多项式对数据进行推断、评估和显示。
外推法的数据集是 1990 年至 2023 年期间俄罗斯联邦常住人口的增长总量。资料来源资料来源:俄罗斯联邦统计局统计数据展示。
让我们连接XLSX.jl
库来获取和处理数据集。
In [ ]:
Pkg.add(["XLSX"])
In [ ]:
using XLSX;
用于内插法和外推法的数据在文件Прирост населения РФ.xlsx
中给出。让我们创建用于分析的数据向量--人口增长计算年份和人口增长值。
In [ ]:
file = "$(@__DIR__)/Прирост населения РФ.xlsx";
years = vec(XLSX.readdata(file, "Отчет!A4:A33")); # Вектор строчных значений формата "xxxx г."
Growth = vec(Int64.(XLSX.readdata(file, "Отчет!C4:C33"))); # Вектор целых чисел
在数据表中,人口增长计算年数的值以字符串格式显示,如"XXXX г."
。这种格式不适合计算和显示,因此我们来创建一个以整数格式表示的人口增长计算年数向量。
In [ ]:
Years = convert(Vector{Int64}, zeros(length(years))); # Вектор для получения значений
i = 1
for year in years
Years[i] = parse(Int64, year[1:4]) # Получаем из строки только первые 4 значения и преобразуем в Int64
i += 1
end
让我们将获得的数据绘制在图表上。
In [ ]:
using Plots
plotlyjs()
plot(Years, Growth,
shape = :circle, ms = 3,
legend = :topright, label = "Исходные данные",
ylims = (minimum(Growth)-5e4, maximum(Growth)+5e4),
xlabel = "Год", ylabel = "Прирост населения, чел.",
title = "Прирост населения РФ в 1990 - 2023 гг.")
Out[0]:
为了进行数据预测,让我们加载并连接Polynomials.jl
库。
In [ ]:
Pkg.add("Polynomials")
using Polynomials;
Resolving package versions... No Changes to `/user/.project/Project.toml` No Changes to `/user/.project/Manifest.toml`
为了进一步推断数据,我们将计算 1、2、3 和 6 阶多项式:
In [ ]:
Numbers = Years.-1990;
pol1 = fit(Numbers,Growth,1);
pol2 = fit(Numbers,Growth,2);
pol3 = fit(Numbers,Growth,3);
pol6 = fit(Numbers,Growth,6);
让我们绘制多项式和原始数据。
In [ ]:
scatter(Years, Growth,
label = "Исходные данные", legend = :topright,
ylims = (minimum(Growth)-5e4, maximum(Growth)+5e4),
xlabel = "Год", ylabel = "Прирост населения, чел.",
title = "Прирост населения РФ в 1990 - 2023 гг.")
plot!(Years, pol1.(Numbers), label="Полином 1 пор.")
plot!(Years, pol2.(Numbers), label="Полином 2 пор.")
plot!(Years, pol3.(Numbers), label="Полином 3 пор.")
plot!(Years, pol6.(Numbers), label="Полином 6 пор.")
Out[0]:
计算 2024 年和 2025 年的外推法数据。
In [ ]:
Extra_Years = [2024, 2025];
Extra_Numbers = [34, 35];
Extra_G_1 = (pol1.(Extra_Numbers));
Extra_G_2 = (pol2.(Extra_Numbers));
Extra_G_3 = (pol3.(Extra_Numbers));
Extra_G_6 = (pol6.(Extra_Numbers));
#Numbers = vcat(Numbers, Extra_Numbers);
绘制多项式、初始数据和预测数据。
In [ ]:
Plots.scatter(Years, Growth,
label = "Исходные данные", legend = :top,
ylims = (minimum(Extra_G_3)-5e4, maximum(Extra_G_6)+5e4),
xlabel = "Год", ylabel = "Прирост населения, чел.")
Plots.plot!(Years, pol1.(Numbers), label = "Полином 1 пор.")
Plots.plot!(Years, pol2.(Numbers), label = "Полином 2 пор.")
Plots.plot!(Years, pol3.(Numbers), label = "Полином 3 пор.")
Plots.plot!(Years, pol6.(Numbers), label = "Полином 6 пор.", color = :orange)
Plots.scatter!(Extra_Years, Extra_G_1, color = :red, shape = :xcross, label = "Экстраполяция 1 пор.")
Plots.scatter!(Extra_Years, Extra_G_2, color = :green, shape = :xcross, label = "Экстраполяция 2 пор.")
Plots.scatter!(Extra_Years, Extra_G_3, color = :violet, shape = :xcross, label = "Экстраполяция 3 пор.")
Plots.scatter!(Extra_Years, Extra_G_6, color = :orange, shape = :xcross, label = "Экстраполяция 6 пор.")
Out[0]:
从结构图中可以看出,不同阶次的外推数据在数值上有很大的差异。
结论¶
在本例中,我们了解了不同多项式阶数的数据外推和绘图方法。
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"xanchor": "center"}], "plot_bgcolor": "rgba(255, 255, 255, 1.000)", "paper_bgcolor": "rgba(255, 255, 255, 1.000)", "margin": {"t": 20, "b": 20, "r": 0, "l": 0}, "yaxis": {"showline": true, "showticklabels": true, "gridcolor": "rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1)", "tickfont": {"family": "sans-serif", "color": "rgba(0, 0, 0, 1)", "size": 11}, "tickmode": "array", "anchor": "x", "range": [-735684, 658665], "tickcolor": "rgb(0, 0, 0)", "gridwidth": 0.5, "visible": true, "showgrid": true, "linecolor": "rgba(0, 0, 0, 1)", "zerolinecolor": "rgba(0, 0, 0, 1)", "tickangle": 0, "zeroline": false, "mirror": false, "domain": [0.07581474190726165, 0.9415463692038496], "title": {"font": {"family": "sans-serif", "color": "rgba(0, 0, 0, 1)", "size": 15}, "text": "Прирост населения, чел."}, "ticks": "inside", "type": "linear"}, "width": 796, "legend": {"x": 1, "traceorder": "normal", "yanchor": "top", "font": {"family": "sans-serif", "color": "rgba(0, 0, 0, 1)", "size": 11}, "borderwidth": 1, "bordercolor": "rgba(0, 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